Obama still has a slight electoral map advantage
fueled by his slim lead in Ohio, but Romney has steadily closed the gap or
moved slightly ahead in some other battleground states. Eight states remain
relative toss-ups.
Both candidates can construct multiple winning
scenarios, with or without Ohio. And it's now possible that the tipping point
could emerge from another battleground, such as Colorado, where Obama and
Romney are deadlocked in the polls.
"At this point, there are probably more
electoral map scenarios than there are undecided voters," said Lee
Miringoff, a pollster at Marist College, which is conducting surveys in key
swing states.
"In a 50-50 race ... everything and everywhere
is going to matter," he said.
National polls show the race is a virtual dead
heat, but Obama still has a lead of at least 4 percentage points in states that
account for 237 electoral votes, according to averages compiled by
RealClearPolitics. Romney has a lead of at least that size in states that
represent 201 electoral votes.
That gives Obama slightly more leeway in the fight
for the remaining 95 electoral votes available in the eight toss-up states, all
won by Obama in the 2008 election - Colorado (9 electoral votes), Florida (29),
Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18), Virginia (13) and Wisconsin
(10).
Obama is clinging to slight poll leads - which
typically are less than the polls' margins of error - in five of those states
with a combined 44 electoral votes: Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and
Wisconsin. That would be enough to put him over the top.
Even if he loses Ohio, Obama could still get to 270
electoral votes - and clinch the election - by winning Colorado instead. Obama
won Colorado by 9 percentage points in 2008, aided by support from young and
suburban voters and the growing Hispanic vote, but he is virtually tied with
Romney there now.
Romney's path is tougher without Ohio, but still
possible.
The former Massachusetts governor has a slight lead
over Obama in Florida and has pulled even with the president in Virginia. If
Romney sweeps those two states and adds Colorado, he would still need to win
Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin to capture the White House.
NEVADA SLIPPING AWAY FROM ROMNEY?
Of the eight toss-up states, Nevada appears the
least competitive, with analysts and some strategists in both parties saying it
is moving toward Obama.
An NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll on Thursday
gave Obama a 3-point edge in Nevada, and the last six public polls have shown
Obama ahead.
Romney appears to have an advantage in Florida,
where six of the last seven public polls have shown him with a small lead.
RealClearPolitics puts Romney's average lead at 1.8 percentage points, within
most polls' margin of error but symbolic of a trend toward the Republican,
analysts say.
"Once an incumbent loses a grip on the race,
it's very hard to get it back," said Florida-based pollster Brad Coker of
Mason-Dixon. "Florida is gone for Obama, from what I'm seeing on the
ground here. The map seems to be expanding for Romney and shrinking for
Obama."
The multiple electoral scenarios have sparked
speculation about alternative outcomes such as a 269-269 tie in electoral
votes, which would leave the presidency to a vote by the Republican-led House
of Representatives.
Another possibility: one candidate wins the
nationwide popular vote, while the other wins the electoral vote - and walks
away with the presidency.
The most heavily contested prize remains Ohio, and
both campaigns are concentrating their time and resources there. Obama has an
average lead in polls there of 1.9 percentage points, according to
RealClearPolitics. Six of the last nine public polls showed Obama with a slight
edge.
The other three showed a tie, including a poll
released on Sunday by the Cincinnati Enquirer newspaper and the Ohio News
Organization.
"The electoral map tilts slightly to Obama,
but only because Ohio is so important and that's one state where he has kept a
very small lead," said Thomas Riehle, a pollster at the market research
firm YouGov, which also is surveying swing states.
"The polling is so much closer than it was in
2000 or any other close election year, so everything is hard to predict,"
he said.
'AN ILLUSION OF VOLATILITY'
Romney's poll gains since his strong performance in
the first debate on October 3 have been powered by growing voter confidence in
his ability to handle the economy, an increase in his favorability ratings and
gains among women and independents.
But Romney's early and mid-October momentum seems
to have slowed or stopped since Obama's strong performances in the final two
debates. National tracking polls have ebbed and flowed in a narrow range during
the past week, with Romney keeping a slight lead in most.
But in a Reuters/Ipsos national online tracking
poll on Sunday, Obama opened a slight lead on Romney, 49 percent to 46 percent,
among likely voters.
On the state level, Romney's surge put him slightly
ahead in Florida and Virginia, but has not been enough for him to overtake
Obama in the Midwestern battlegrounds of Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin.
Those three states alone, added to the states where
Obama already has solid leads, would be enough for the president to win with
271 electoral votes.
"There is an illusion of volatility that is
created when you have 90 public polls coming out every day," Obama senior
adviser David Axelrod told reporters last week. "The fact of the matter
is, this race has been remarkably stable over a long period of time."
Obama's support level falls short of the magic 50
percent mark in most national and swing state polls, a danger sign for an
incumbent who is well known to voters and therefore could be unlikely to win
the support of a majority of those who make late decisions.
The close race has put a premium on each campaign's
ability to identify and turn out their voters, and Obama's camp has trumpeted
its edge in early voting in swing states and its effort to get both frequent
and sporadic voters to the polls.
It is unclear how Hurricane Sandy will affect early
voting along the East Coast - particularly in Virginia. Bob McDonnell,
Virginia's Republican governor and a Romney supporter, has vowed to extend
early voting hours and restore power quickly to voting facilities in the event
of outages.
Obama's Democrats have made early voting a focus of
their campaign and represent a majority of those casting ballots before
Election Day.
But Romney's campaign says early voting among
Republicans in the toss-up states is running ahead of the party's pace in 2008,
when Obama defeated Republican John McCain. In Ohio, Republicans are
out-performing their share of registered voters in absentee ballot requests and
early votes, the campaign said.
"The battleground state polls are all very
close, although many are still tipping slightly Obama's way," Miringoff
said. "It's still very much a flip of the coin situation."